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Humble Student Of The Markets: July 2021

  • Dividing the value of equity by 94.5 million shares yields a value per share of $21.51/share, but even that may be an over estimate. Generally speaking, voting shares should trade at a premium over non-voting shares, but that premium should be larger in poorly managed firms than in well-managed firms. Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) - Shares of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. broke through $8.60 resistance on Monday. Human Genome Sciences Inc. (HGSI) - HGSI continues to rise on a buyout rumor. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) - Shares of Goldman Sachs Group are back below $155 again. I used the 43.31 million shares that Yahoo! Linked in notes that it has options outstanding on roughly 17 million shares, with exercise prices ranging from $6 to $23. Needless to say, all those options are deep in-the-money now and while I don't have information on vesting, it behooves us to act as if these options will be exercised.


    This position is now worth north of $2 billion. Apple (AAPL) - Apple (AAPL) seems to be holding the $165 level right now. Right now, it’s having an awesome year compared to peers in regional banking. He rated Tesla shares Buy until early 2020, downgrading them to Hold in January this past year. Two factors played a role in containing dual class shares: the first was that, for decades, the New York boutiques Exchange barred shares with different voting rights from getting listed on the exchange and the second was the fear of an adverse reaction from investors. They then took a different tack and looking for company-specific variables that did a better job of explaining return differences and pinpointed two variables - the market capitalization of a firm and its price to book ratio (the ratio of market cap to accounting book value for equity). One of these two groups will be wrong and I would not want to be in that group, when there is a final reckoning. In fact, I have a counter question, when I am asked the question of what the value of a business or stock is: Do you want a value for your business or a price for your business?


    Should such partnerships materialize, we could see another spike in this company’s stock price. So, investors look back over history and see that most of the time a good company will reach a "high" split and reach that high again. The retail giant’s stock jumped by over 3% in late morning trading, joining Microsoft in a brisk rally. It listed on the NASDAQ and institutional investors were so eager to hold the stock that they seemed to overlook the voting share structure (or at least not price it in). Though not a perfect indicator, gold prices have surged when a subset of investors have lost that faith, i.e., they fear that the currency is being debased (inflation) or systematic government failures. What makes this monent in economic history disquieting is that we are getting discordant signals from the market: the low interest rates on treasuries (US, German and Japanese) suggests that investors think expected inflation will be low in the future whereas higher prices for precious metals (gold, silver) give support to the argument that investors (or at least a subset of them) believe the opposite. With proxy models, we essentially give up on building risk and return models from economic theory.



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